Although the PV subsidy policy of 2019 has not yet been officially issued, the symposium has been discussed again and again for the concerns of many industry people. Presumably, the results of these discussions will not be much different from the next official PV policy. Access. With the deepening of the discussion, the introduction of the new PV strategy has been on the line and will be issued in the near future.
The changes that are clearly going to be made in 2019 are mainly the following:
1. Unsubsidized projects will receive strong support;
2, 2019 will be subsidized rated installed capacity, this subsidy amount is disclosed to be 3 billion;
3. Household projects will be listed separately and given a separate scale to implement fixed subsidies.
In other words, under the new rules, all PV companies in 2019 will compete for the 3 billion cakes. According to the latest policy, the projects that may be subsidized in 2019 are divided into five categories: poverty alleviation projects, household photovoltaics, ordinary photovoltaic power plants (ground power stations), industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaics and front-runners, and special high-pressure channel supporting projects. Under such circumstances, how should the 3 billion PV subsidy cakes be divided? Where is the market opportunity in 2019?
1. How much will household projects account for?
As the most promising project in the photovoltaic industry, household PV has always been the focus of industry professionals. The relevant departments are also well aware of the importance of the household market, so they are prepared to give household projects a certain positive in 2019.
At present, we only know that household projects have a separate scale and implement fixed subsidies. In other words, in the household use, it will continue to follow the policy of last year.
According to the "Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018", last year China arranged a 10 GW project construction scale for distributed photovoltaic projects. In 2019, this policy will be followed to some extent, but the distributed project will be replaced by a household PV project, and the scale will certainly not be as large as 10GW.
How large is the household project this year? At present, the industry generally prefers 3GW, and the 3GW also needs to subtract the household project that was not included in the state subsidy after May 31, 2018. The scale of this part of the project is 0.4~0.5GW. As a result, the scale of new projects to be left in 2019 is only about 2.5 GW. According to the subsidy standard of 0.18 yuan/kwh, the amount of subsidy required for household use in 2019 is about 500 million yuan.
Second, last year's legacy projects will also participate in the competition
It is estimated that in addition to household projects, 15GW of ordinary PV projects will be connected to the grid after “531” last year. This part of the project is the first batch of “unsubsidized projects”, but at present, this part of the project may also participate in the 30 billion subsidy competition in 2019.
According to calculations, this part of the stock power station last year will need to consume about 1.2 billion yuan of subsidy funds. As a result, the space left for the new project in 2019 is actually not large.
In other words, in addition to the account opening project and the subsidy funds occupied by the stock projects last year, the remaining new projects can only get more than one billion yuan in subsidies.
3. Will poverty alleviation projects also participate in the competition?
At the beginning of relevant policy reports, many PV industry people believe that PV poverty alleviation projects should not use 3 billion yuan of subsidy funds. Since the main purpose of poverty alleviation projects is poverty alleviation, the subsidy funds for these projects should be supported by relevant poverty alleviation funds instead of Compete with ordinary projects for valuable subsidy resources.
Such an idea may be a bit whimsical. The first $3 billion subsidy is for the entire PV industry. Although the PV poverty alleviation project has its own particularity, according to the current primary goal of “control subsidy output”, it is unlikely that another part of the PV poverty alleviation fund will be allocated from the renewable energy fund.
On the other hand, because PV poverty alleviation projects have always received subsidies like other projects, it is unrealistic to suddenly kick out poverty alleviation projects out of the camp; and if the subsidy special funds for PV poverty alleviation projects need to be exchanged for one source, it will increase from the air. The difficulty of subsidies is also a constraint on the development of poverty alleviation projects themselves.
Therefore, unfortunately, the new PV poverty alleviation project in 2019 will also participate in the competition for subsidies of 3 billion yuan, and the PV poverty alleviation project, like the household PV project, can obtain subsidized projects without participating in the bidding.
Fourth, the leader plan for uncertainty
According to the latest policy, in addition to poverty alleviation, household use and special projects that have been approved, distributed and ground power stations all use the bidding method to obtain subsidy indicators.
As we all know, although the front-runner project has limited the scale indicators, for the enterprise, the front-runner project has always been to obtain subsidy indicators through bidding. After 2019, all ordinary projects will use the bidding method to obtain subsidy indicators, which means that the application of the front runner project will have lost its "leader" meaning. This means that there will be no more front-runner projects in 2019.
The only doubt is that in addition to the application of the front runner project, there is also a technology leader project. Unlike the application leader project, the technology leader project is aimed at new technologies. In this regard, the technology leader project still has its necessity, as to what will happen, no one can say.
What's important is that if there is a new batch of technology leader projects, this part of the project will also need subsidies in order to reflect the support for new technologies. Undoubtedly, this part of the project will also participate in the fight for 3 billion subsidies.
Summary: The market size in 2019 mainly depends on unsubsidized projects.
From the above analysis, if the subsidy fund in 2019 is 3 billion yuan, there is not much room left for new ordinary projects. The state of "wolf is less meaty" is more obvious. At present, the list of subsidies for poverty alleviation and household use is the most stable. Other projects that obtain indicators through bidding require a strong cost control capability. In the event of a low price, the project may not generate as much revenue as the unsubsidized project.
Due to the limited subsidy funds, the subsidized projects are more limited, so the installed capacity of this part of the project will be very low. Relatively speaking, the market will have a greater impact and support for the 2019 market will be unsubsidized photovoltaic projects. The extent to which new PV installations can be achieved in 2019 will also be reflected in the implementation of the “fee free” policy, as unsubsidized projects will only have room for development if the non-technical costs are effectively reduced.