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Mobile WebSiteWith the spread of various kinds of news, the main outline of the new PV subsidy policy in 2019 has gradually become clear, that is, the subsidy program discussed by relevant departments and enterprises on February 18. In general, it is limited to 3 billion yuan in subsidy funds, while stocks last. The household project has a special fund of 700 million yuan, and the remaining funds need to be distributed by industry and commerce, and the ground power station is obtained through bidding. Some people in the industry have estimated that the new installed capacity of household projects is expected to reach 3.6GW, and other ordinary projects will be newly installed or reach 36GW. In addition, there are 5GW of PV poverty alleviation projects and 4GW front-runner projects.
The above is based on the forecast of 3 billion yuan of subsidy funds, that is, the new scale of subsidized projects has exceeded 40GW. In contrast to subsidized projects, how much can there be for this year's hot unsubsidized projects?
Market enthusiasm is not high
Since the issuance of the Notice on Actively Promoting the Work of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation with Unsubsidized Affordable Internet Access (hereinafter referred to as the “Notice”), the unsubsidized project has become a hot word in the industry. According to the notice, there will be a batch of unsubsidized projects connected to the grid, leading the industry to the era of affordable Internet access, the industry said that 2019 is "unsubsidized first year."
But now, a few months after the announcement, there seems to be no movement in the unsubsidized project. According to the notice, after the policy is released, the provinces need to start to organize the reporting of parity online projects. However, for the current situation, only the provinces that have organized the filing of affordable online projects are only Guangdong, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Hebei, and there is no movement in other regions. This kind of performance of “selling well” is facing embarrassment for unsubsidized projects.
In addition, before the subsidy policy has been formally introduced, the enthusiasm of enterprises for unsubsidized projects is also very low. Because only under the reference of “subsidized projects”, companies can predict the investment value of unsubsidized projects. Capital markets are profit-seeking. If unsubsidized projects are not competitive, enterprises will not be motivated.
Under such circumstances, limiting the non-technical costs of unsubsidized projects is key. Because only non-technical costs have fallen, unsubsidized projects have room for development.
Non-technical cost reduction becomes doubtful
In recent years, the price of photovoltaic modules has dropped rapidly, and its cost reduction has reached a critical point. On the other hand, the “non-technical costs” of land costs, tax costs, and grid-connected costs of power stations have remained high.
It is the main idea of “notification” to require all regions to reduce the “non-technical cost” of photovoltaic power generation and then increase the yield of unsubsidized projects.
It is precisely because of this, from local governments to grid companies, to major banks, the “notice” not only overbears the way for all institutions and departments that limit clean energy generation, but also strongly urges these institutions and departments to fully support.
If you want to declare unsubsidized projects, the relevant regions must provide various types of tax and fee concessions for unsubsidized projects, and it is best to have special subsidies; and grid companies must ensure the integration of related projects, preferably in the process of network connection. In order to reduce fees; banks also have to give green light to unsubsidized projects to fund these projects.
Such a request seems reasonable and reasonable, but it will inevitably touch the cakes of certain stakeholders. The coldness in various places is evidence today. For example, the notification of non-subsidized projects in Guangdong Province is very interesting: in view of the poor wind and solar energy resources in our province, cities and towns should carefully guide enterprises to carry out comprehensive analysis and evaluation of wind power and photovoltaic power generation unsubsidized parity online projects, and do a good job in research and judgment. If there is a pilot project for affordable Internet access with construction conditions, please report it to the Provincial Energy Bureau before the end of March.
In fact, as long as I see this notification, I understand that there is basically no hope for non-subsidized projects in Guangdong Province.
Under such circumstances, the development of unsubsidized projects this year has become a worry. Appeal industry experts believe that the 2019 unsubsidized project may be installed at a scale of 2-3 GW.
summary
Not only in the market, but if the policy and installed capacity are as predicted above, the installed capacity of subsidized projects will reach 45-48GW, and the domestic market will still be dominated by subsidized projects in 2019. Unsubsidized projects will undoubtedly become a foil.
