At the end of last year, at a household PV conference, Laohong couldn't help but pay attention to the arrival of the "photovoltaic + energy storage" market. As a result, the timing of an enterprise executive did not arrive.

One year has passed, and the old red has fallen into extreme confusion. I am afraid that if you don’t call for "no longer deploying energy, you will be late" and will regret it in the future. I am afraid that if you "do not lay out the energy storage, you will be late". The call is early, and there will be no face in the future.

I want to say "I will be late if I don't lay out energy storage" because Laohong sees that the frequency of information on energy storage in the past year has increased from 10% to 40%:

"In 2019, the number of PV users installing energy storage batteries in Australia reached 70,000, which is close to 5% of the installed PV households. It also makes Australia's "photovoltaic + energy storage" ratio of 30% of the global battery."

"European household PV energy storage systems are approaching grid parity. It is expected that the cost of households' own power generation will be lower than the cost of purchasing electricity from the grid as soon as 2021. The household PV + energy storage system in Europe will grow five times. By then, the annual installed capacity will reach 500MW/1.2GWh."

"Since 2017, nearly 50% of residential solar power installations in Europe have been equipped with battery energy storage systems. Germany now deploys about 150,000 home energy storage systems with a storage capacity of approximately 1 GWh."

"The number of household energy storage installations is growing rapidly in the United States: over the past four years, the annual growth rate has exceeded 200%, and this trend will continue. Starting in 2020, California will require new homes in the state by modifying the building regulations. Install photovoltaic systems and encourage builders to install battery energy storage systems."

I want to say "I will be late if I don't lay out energy storage" because Laohong sees that the cost of energy storage is approaching the level acceptable to the market:

Energy storage has no independent use value. Energy shifting is the main application scenario of energy storage. Its value is reflected in different application scenarios, just like "photovoltaic + energy storage" is the price of photovoltaic power generation system.

According to the analysis of experts, the energy storage cost needs to be reduced to 0.6 yuan / wh or less. "Photovoltaic + energy storage" has the price competitiveness of affordable Internet access. In the past, there have been some news like this:

"Haida has won the third batch of battery packs of Pinggao Group at a unit price of 0.9 yuan/Wh, which has once again triggered the discussion about the cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries in power storage applications";

"Wisdom energy subsidiary Far East Foster signed a "Energy Storage Battery System Framework Purchase Agreement" with Zhejiang Storage Energy. The agreement stipulated that the 330MWH energy storage battery pack provided by Far East Foster will be delivered to Zhejiang Energy Storage with a total order value of 267 million yuan. It is estimated that the price of the transaction battery is about 0.81 yuan / Wh";

The industry turning point of energy storage "1.5 yuan / Wh system cost has been broken in 2018, the lowest cost is constantly refreshed, the cost of manufacturing cells of 0.5-0.7 yuan / Wh has appeared, less than 0.3 yuan / Wh of electricity Cost is expected to be realized this year";

"The battery energy storage system is currently on the 'profit edge' in several market segments in Germany."

I am afraid that "you will not be able to lay out energy storage." The appeal is early, because Laohong has seen that many experts say that "photovoltaic + energy storage" is difficult to have economic value in a short period of time:

"We have lowered the expectation of the development of the user-side energy storage (Behind-the-meter). We have lowered the forecast of the development speed of the household and industrial and commercial users' side energy storage market";

"The extent to which user-side energy storage projects will participate in the electricity market and provide power system services remains highly uncertain. On the one hand, the economics of user-side energy storage projects are still not optimistic, on the other hand, the lack of suitable business Modes, technical solutions and institutional environments have also limited their development. However, by 2040, we expect user-side energy storage to replace the cumulative installed capacity of 7% of power system energy storage projects";

"As for the user side, especially the user side of the park, I am not optimistic at present. Why do you say this? First, the income model is too single. It depends on the peak-valley price difference. It is too much affected by the policy. The side is directly extinguished."

I am afraid that "you will not be able to lay out energy storage." The appeal is early because Laohong gradually realized that the power system reform effect is not satisfactory. Although the production cost of energy storage batteries is rapidly declining, there is no scale to realize the cost of energy storage. market. Some experts said:

"Some people think that the commercialization of the energy storage market depends on the cost. Then I ask you, when is the cost reduced to the head? The previous 1.5 yuan / wh can not work, now 1 yuan / wh still not, then 0.5 yuan / wh can not According to the current awkward market mechanism, no one can build a dime, and it cannot stimulate the internal motivation of the market."

"Energy storage cost is not an obstacle to application, the mechanism is. Energy storage has 4-5 functions, and even more. In the absence of a fair market environment and a price-paying mechanism, the multiple application values of energy storage cannot be fully utilized. reflect".

Regarding "It’s too late to lay out energy storage," the words of approval and disapproval all let the energy storage experts say, but no one answered the confusion of Laohong: China, Australia, Germany, and California face the same The problem is, but China, which has the world's strongest PV production capacity and the largest capacity of energy storage batteries, why is it far behind Australia, Germany, and California in the "photovoltaic + energy storage" market?