The main 2105 contract of Shanghai copper fell sharply on Monday, with the highest of 66940 yuan/ton, the lowest of 65650 yuan/ton, and the closing price of 65690 yuan/ton, down 1.54% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME copper fell and fluctuated, as of 15 Beijing time: At 00, the 3-month LME copper reported $8814/ton, a daily drop of 1.29%.

Market focus: (1) US President Biden proposed a US$1.52 trillion budget for the 2022 fiscal year, which includes a proposal to substantially increase capital investment to address inequality, disease and climate change. (2) The monthly growth rate of US PPI in March was 1.0%, and the annual growth rate was 4.2%, the highest since 2011; the core PPI monthly rate in March increased by 0.7%, and the annual growth rate was 3.1%. (3) On April 9, China's copper concentrate port inventory was 613,000 tons, an increase of 81,000 tons from last week; China's copper ore processing fee TC was US$29.3/dry ton, the same as last week.

Spot analysis: On April 12, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 65620-65800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 65710 yuan/ton, and a daily drop of 1060 yuan/ton. According to Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals, traders tend to wait and see, the downstream buying sentiment is not high, and the transaction is average.

Warehouse receipts inventory: On Monday, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 116,363 tons, an increase of 1,275 tons per day; on April 9, LME copper inventory was 163,100 tons, an increase of 6,025 tons per day. As of the week of April 9, Shanghai copper stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported 193,568 tons, a weekly decrease of 4,060 tons.

Main positions: The top 20 long positions of Shanghai Copper's main 2105 contract are 67,643 hands, with a daily decrease of 2,642 hands, a short position of 73,066 hands, a daily decrease of 3949 hands, a headroom position of 5,423 hands, a daily decrease of 1307 hands, both long and short positions, and a decrease in headroom.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai Copper 2105 fell sharply on April 12. The President of the United States proposed a $1.52 trillion budget for the 2022 fiscal year. At the same time, the overall PPI of the United States in March rose 4.2% from the same period last year, indicating that inflationary pressures continued to increase, and the dollar index rebounded slightly. The poor output of copper ore upstream in Chile at the beginning of the year, combined with the recent border closure due to the epidemic, the tightening of domestic copper ore supply and the lower processing fee TC, put pressure on the production of smelters. It is expected that refined copper output will decline slightly in April. The current downstream demand is still weak, and domestic copper inventories have not yet entered a downward channel. However, there are still expectations for the peak season of domestic demand, and copper prices continue to adjust. Technically, the mainstream short position of the Shanghai Copper 2105 contract is relatively large, paying attention to the support of the 65,000 mark, and the short-term range adjustment is expected.

Article information source-cable network




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