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Excavator growth rate has declined for two consecutive months

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of excavators in May 2021 was 36,102, a year-on-year decrease of 18.8%; the cumulative output from January to May was 235,183, a year-on-year increase of 37.1%. The year-on-year growth rate of excavator production has declined for two consecutive months.

   In terms of tractors, the output of large, medium and small excavators in May was 7,313, 23,870, and 16,000, respectively, representing a year-on-year increase of 7%, a decrease of 9.8%, and an increase of 14.3%. From January to May, the output of large, medium and small excavators was 47,000, 157,000, and 80,000, respectively, an increase of 60.5%, 28%, and 29% year-on-year. The output growth rate of large and medium-sized tractors declined significantly in May, and the growth rate of small digging output increased by nearly 9% compared with April.

   Overall, the output of major machinery and equipment in the first five months of 2021 has shown an increase year-on-year. Among them, large-scale production grew the fastest, with a year-on-year growth rate of 60.5%. However, the growth rate of main machinery and equipment output from January to May continued to slow down from January to April.

  According to the research report "China's excavator industry competition analysis and investment strategy research consulting report 2020-2025" statistics show that:

   One, 2015-2019 China's excavator industry market size and changing trends

   In 2019, the excavation machinery market still maintains a rapid growth. The high growth rate is not only related to the growth of market demand, but also affected by the base of sales in 2018. This growth was affected by multiple factors such as the recovery of the macro economy, the growth of real estate investment, the implementation of PPP projects, the renewal cycle, the product inventory cycle and other factors. With the changes in the objective market environment, the rapid growth of the industry is difficult to sustain for a long time.

Generally speaking, the second year of each five-year plan is the start year of a large number of projects, and 2017 is also the year when the "13th Five-Year Plan" projects are concentrated, and construction demand has increased significantly. Therefore, the sales of excavating machinery will continue to rise from 2017 to 2018. momentum. As the project gradually enters the stage of completion and acceptance, the new market demand in 2019-2020 may decline. Of course, it cannot be ignored that 2019 will be the centralized renewal period for sales equipment during the peak period of the industry in 2010-2012. Renewal demand Will become the most important source of market demand.

   Generally speaking, from 2015 to 2019, the sales scale of China's excavator industry has achieved rapid growth.

   2. 2015-2019 China's excavator industry production and sales scale

   Under the superimposed influence of factors such as the overweight of infrastructure investment, the further implementation of policies such as environmental governance, and the in-depth development of the “Belt and Road”, the excavator market has performed well since 2017. In 2017, the cumulative sales of various excavators were 140,303 units, a year-on-year increase of 99.5%; in 2018, the cumulative sales of various types of excavators were 203,420 units, a year-on-year increase of 45.0%. This sales volume refreshed the sales peak in 2011 (176352 units), setting a record high . Entering 2019, the sales volume of excavators hit a record high, with a total of 235,693 excavators of various types sold throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%; the domestic market sales of 209,077 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%; exports of 26,616 units, a year-on-year increase of 39.4%. The rapid growth has been maintained, and the proportion of export sales has reached 11.3%. With the rise of domestic brands such as XCMG, Sany, and Zoomlion, the share of domestic excavators in overseas markets is expected to continue to increase.

Chart: 2015-2019 China's excavator industry sales (units)

Data source: Zhongyan Puhua

   The output of excavators in December 2019 was 28,720 units, a year-on-year increase of 13%. For the whole year of 2019, the output of excavators was 266,299, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%.

   Chart: 2015-2019 China's excavator industry output (10,000 units)

Data source: Zhongyan Puhua

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