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The supply of key chips is blocked, leading to a shortage of car sources

       The shortage of chip supply has gradually intensified the impact of automotive terminal retail. In October, the supply of key chips and components was blocked, and production losses were large, resulting in a shortage of car sources and insufficient inventory of dealers, resulting in a situation of "no cars to sell".
   Although chip supply in October was slightly eased compared with September, it still could not meet production demand. During the November period, due to insufficient car sources, dealers did not have large-scale marketing activities. Although the automobile market has entered the traditional peak season and demand for car purchases has increased, the increase in car prices caused by insufficient terminal supply has caused consumers to stay on the sidelines. In mid-to-late October, due to multiple epidemics across the country and busy farming activities, the silver ten car market has not been hot in previous years, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand.
   According to data from the Passenger Transport Association, in September, the output of narrowly defined passenger vehicles was 1.721 million, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%; retail sales were 1.582 million, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3%. Retail sales of passenger vehicles in the narrow sense are expected to be 1.72 million in October, a year-on-year decrease of 13.7%. The "October 2021 Market Insights and Price Monthly Report" issued by the China Automobile Dealers Association and Guangzhou Wilson Information Technology Co., Ltd. predicts that in the fourth quarter, the market will continue to be hindered by the increase in retail sales.
  Independent brands maintain growth, joint venture luxury continues to decline
   The impact of chip supply problems on terminal retail is gradually increasing, and the supply of key chips and components is blocked, resulting in a shortage of vehicle sources and a significant downward trend in retail sales. However, the self-owned brand industry chain is strong and effectively relieved the pressure of chip shortage. The main manufacturers performed well, superimposed on the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, and the independent market grew against the trend; joint-venture brands continued to decline in sales due to the shortage of chips and the high base; The impact of the “lack of cores” spread to luxury brands, sales fell into a downward trend, and upward pressure remained relatively high.
   Independent brands continued to perform satisfactorily, and new energy models maintained a strong upward trend. The independent market continued to grow in September, with a year-on-year increase of 17.6%; it is predicted that the upward trend will remain unchanged in the short term in the future. With the gradual increase in sales over the same period, the growth rate will gradually slow down.
The independent market industry chain has a strong ability to cope with chip shortages, effectively defuses the pressure of chip shortages, and the strong growth of new energy models has also brought considerable increases. SAIC-GM-Wuling, BYD, GAC Aian, Ideal, etc. have all achieved rapid growth; and this At the same time, top brands such as Chang'an and Hongqi have also made great strides to jointly promote the rise of the independent market. Self-owned brands are less affected by the lack of cores. In October, major manufacturers continued to perform well, and new energy models maintained a strong upward trend. In order to further seize the market, dealers steadily output preferential discounts, and the price index and discount rate were the same as in September.
  The joint venture market sales continued to decline, and there may be a significant decline in the fourth quarter. Under the influence of chip shortages, the production capacity of head manufacturers such as Volkswagen, Honda, and Toyota have been greatly affected, and sales have continued to decline. In September, the year-on-year decline expanded to 31.0%. The impact of the lack of cores will continue to increase in the joint venture market in the short term. The biggest obstacle, if the chip supply pressure cannot be effectively alleviated, it is expected that the joint venture market will continue to see a large decline in the fourth quarter.
  In October, sales in the joint venture market continued to fall under the influence of chip shortages. Insufficient production capacity led to a decline in dealer inventories. Terminal discounts were obviously recovered. The joint venture market price index increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and the discount rate decreased by 0.2%.
   The growth rate of the luxury market segment may continue to decline, and discounts will continue to decrease. In September, sales of luxury cars totaled 285,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%. The consumption environment of the luxury car market is stable, and the impact of chips continues. Most luxury brand manufacturers still have production cuts and insufficient supply, and terminal demand is strong.
   The overall luxury car market performed relatively smoothly in October. From the second half of the year, second-tier brands have seen a good momentum of development. Due to insufficient vehicle sources, Jaguar Land Rover has gradually tasted the advantages brought by luxury car profits. In the future, it will invest more planning and strategic adjustments on mass vehicles and profitable vehicles. Lincoln benefited from the localization of key models and continued to grow steadily despite the declining sales of other luxury brands. The China Automobile Dealers Association predicts that the luxury market will remain hot in the two months at the end of the year, and whether the problem of tight chip supply can be alleviated will be the key to reversing the decline in the luxury market.
   From the perspective of production and sales, the impact of the epidemic on domestic industrial production is relatively weak. The pace of purchase and sales of major manufacturers is still affected by chips. Foreign countries are still severely affected by the epidemic, and the supply of imported cars has eased slightly. From the perspective of price trends, discounts in the luxury car market continue to decrease, and the overall consumer market environment is stable. However, resource supply problems caused by chip shortages still affect most manufacturers, and the trend of price recovery is spreading. Judging from the price index, the overall market rebounded by 0.2%.
   Entering the year-end impulse period, market demand is still difficult to release
   Entering November, the chip gap problem has continued to narrow. However, in some areas, the outbreak of the epidemic has restricted consumers from entering stores to buy cars. Even if dealers enter the year-end impulse and start auto shows and marketing activities, market demand is still difficult to fully release.
   The China Automobile Dealers Association predicts that the auto consumption index in October will be 66.1, a slight increase from September. With the alleviation of chip problems, automobile production and supply are gradually improving, and the accumulated market demand may be further released. It is expected that the sales volume in November will be slightly better than that in October.
   At present, the inventory level of dealers is generally low. Some manufacturers have taken measures to reduce or cancel business evaluation indicators in response to problems such as the shortage of best-selling models and the recovery of discounts. In response to the problem of long car booking cycles, manufacturers and dealers have introduced subsidy policies to guarantee orders to increase the order conversion rate. At present, the overall supply of chips in the fourth quarter is expected to be better than that in the third quarter. If the production capacity of automobiles increases, market demand will be further released.
  The purchase index in October was 78.7, and it is expected that the actual purchase intention of consumers in November will decrease slightly compared with that in October. At present, many areas are affected by the epidemic, and consumer confidence fluctuates. In addition, the lack of supply has led to many vehicle price increases and prolonged order cycles. Consumers’ willingness to purchase has decreased, and large-scale consumption plans may be postponed.
   It is worth mentioning that in November, resources for mainstream luxury and joint venture brands in the auto market will still be insufficient. The demand for automobile consumption continues to increase, the car booking cycle is longer, and the phenomenon of vehicle price increases due to insufficient supply is still obvious, and consumers may hold money to wait and see.
Among the cumulative sales of joint venture brands in the previous September, SAIC Volkswagen ranked first with cumulative sales of 1.099 million vehicles, a decrease of 21.4% from the same period in 2019; FAW-Volkswagen’s cumulative sales of 901,000 vehicles, a decrease of 10.1% from the same period in 2019; Dongfeng Nissan’s cumulative sales The sales volume was 769,000 vehicles, a decrease of 7.8 compared with the same period in 2019; the cumulative sales of Beijing Hyundai and Chevrolet decreased by 40.5% and 42.7% respectively compared with the same period in 2019. Among the cumulative sales of luxury brands, BMW leads with 672,000 cumulative sales, Mercedes-Benz with 598,000 vehicles, and Audi with 560,000 vehicles. Among the second-tier luxury brands, Tesla ranked first with a cumulative sales volume of 196,000.
      "Distributors should rationally estimate actual market demand based on actual conditions and reasonably control inventory levels to prevent excessive inventory pressure from causing business risks. At the same time, do not relax epidemic prevention and continue to implement epidemic prevention and control measures." China Recommended by the Automobile Dealers Association.

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