2018 New Energy Logistics Car Three Policy Trends

As more and more car companies enter the market, competition in logistics vehicles will further increase in 2018.

However, in this context, the two core influencing factors of the new energy logistics vehicle market - road rights and subsidies have not yet landed, which makes the market more severe in 2018, but also increasingly confusing.

The industry generally believes that if the subsidy degrades, but correspondingly increase the road rights advantage of the new energy logistics vehicle, the overall market will not be greatly affected. Therefore, the key to the market prospects for new energy logistics vehicles in 2018 is to see the extent of the subsidy fall, and the advancement of road rights advantages.

The industry believes that these three major policy trends are of great significance to the market structure of the new energy logistics vehicle market in 2018. Next, look at the three major policy trends and their possible impact.

(I) Subsidy for slope recovery 40% or more

It is reported that the subsidy coefficient will be implemented in accordance with the 2017 standard of 0.5 or 0.7 times in 2018, and the subsidy transition period will be from January to April.

Among them, new energy special vehicles are still subsidized in 2018. The portion exceeding 30kwh (inclusive) was reduced from 1,500 yuan/kwh to 900kwh; the portion of 30-50kwh (inclusive) was lowered from 1200 yuan/kwh to 750 yuan/kwh; the portion exceeding 50kwh was decreased from 1,000 yuan/kwh to 650yuan/kwh .

Rising vehicle prices, increasing vehicle prices, and impacting the industrial chain

It is understood that the subsidy retreat has not only brought direct impact to car companies, but also has affected the new energy logistics vehicle market and the entire industrial chain.

According to the understanding of senior electric vehicles, in order to absorb the price pressure brought by subsidy and subsidy, car manufacturers put forward a greater price reduction requirement for auto parts, especially Sanpower, and even replaced the type of power battery; in addition, many cars Enterprises have increased the price of vehicles.

1. Increased vehicle prices caused by rising vehicle prices and 1. Increased pressure from vehicle manufacturers and distributors that caused price increases for vehicles

It is reported that subsidy retreat will lead to a further increase in the prices of new energy logistics vehicles. A number of car companies confirmed to senior electric vehicles that they will increase their vehicle prices in 2018. According to a certain car company, the price of pure electric micro noodles will increase by 5,000 to 10,000 yuan in 2018, and models with larger electric vehicles will increase more.

This is still the result of the car companies digesting a considerable part of their costs. It is understood that if the subsidy retreats by 40%, pure electric micro-facet subsidies will be reduced by about 30,000 yuan on the basis of 2017, and

subsidy for all-electric light trucks will be reduced by 50,000, while the subsidy for electric vehicles with larger electric charge will be reduced by more. Big.

As we all know, because the price is much higher than the same level of fuel vehicles, new energy logistics vehicles have encountered a lot of obstacles to promotion, so the current round of price increases will increase the market pressure faced by car companies and dealers.

According to a dealer, “The increase in vehicle prices has caused the company’s financial pressure to increase rapidly. Originally, it planned to purchase 300 pure electric light trucks in 2018. Now, these vehicles will increase the cost of millions. Moreover, the most important thing is that the rental of cars will increase. , bad rent."

2. The three power companies are under pressure

Because of the large rate of subsidy retreat in 2018, auto makers definitely need to find ways to absorb this cost pressure. Auto companies require auto parts, especially the three power companies significantly lower prices. And these companies spread the pressure up to their upstream, and thus the entire new energy logistics vehicle industry chain is greatly affected.

For example, in the field of electrical control of electric motors, car companies require motor companies to drop by more than 20% on the basis of 2017. This makes electric motor control companies with extremely low profit margins "stressed."

According to a number of high-level motor company executives, the current price of the motor system has been nearly transparent, especially the price of electronic control systems for commercial vehicles has reached the limit. An industry official bluntly stated: “Before new energy vehicles have not been released, motor companies are very high, and the current total cost of motor purchases has increased by 10%-20%. If the electric motor price in 2018 is further reduced by more than 20%, many companies will There is no way to live."

In terms of batteries, logistics vehicle companies require the price of power batteries to be controlled at 1.1-1.2 yuan/wh. It should be noted that under the background of soaring prices of nickel and cobalt raw materials, power battery companies have become a "sandwich layer" and are under pressure from upstream and downstream sources. Therefore, in order to reduce the cost of power batteries, many car companies will use three yuan instead of soft packs and square lithium iron phosphate.