As the main force of new energy with the goal of "dual carbon", wind power is ushering in a historic development opportunity. The latest data shows that in 2020, China's new grid-connected installed capacity of wind power will reach 71.67 million kilowatts, a record high. In the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", China's new grid-connected installed capacity of wind power reached 14.63 million kilowatts in the first August, an increase of 4.59 million kilowatts year-on-year. The industry predicts that this year's annual wind power grid-connected installed capacity is expected to exceed 40-50 million kilowatts.
Under the booming demand, the trend of large-scale wind turbines is obvious, and the industry structure is expected to be reshaped. The proportion of new energies, mainly wind power and photovoltaics, has continued to increase, and the core characteristics of the new power system have become increasingly prominent.
The trend of large-scale fan formation
The large-scale wind turbines have brought product upgrades and continued to promote the reduction of wind power cost per kilowatt-hour, which has become the main trend in the current layout of wind energy enterprises.At the just-concluded 2021 Beijing International Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition (hereinafter referred to as the "2021 Wind Energy Exhibition"), including Envision Energy, Mingyang Intelligent, China Haizhuang, Shanghai Electric, Goldwind Technology, Sany Heavy Energy, and Yunda 12 OEMs, including Dongfang Electric, CRRC, United Power, Harbin Electric Wind Power, and Sinovel Wind Power, have released new models of wind turbines.
Combing and discovering that most of the wind turbines newly launched by the machine manufacturer this time are 4.0MW and above. In terms of stand-alone scale, Goldwind Technology, Mingyang Intelligent, Electric Wind Power, Yunda Wind Power, Dongfang Wind Power and China Haizhuang respectively launched wind turbines of more than 10MW. Among them, China Haizhuang released 16MW semi-direct-drive offshore wind turbines, which was refreshed again. Offshore wind turbine unit capacity; in terms of impeller diameter, including Goldwind, Envision Energy, Mingyang Smart, Electric Wind Power, Yunda Wind Power, Dongfang Wind Power, China Haizhuang, the diameter of the impeller exceeds 200 meters, and the H256-16MW launched by China Haizhuang The impeller diameter is as high as 256 meters, making it the largest wind turbine released in this exhibition.
According to data from the Wind Energy Professional Committee of the Chinese Renewable Energy Society, from 2019 to 2020, the increase and accumulation of domestic onshore 3.0MW and above units, and the addition and accumulation of domestic offshore 5.0MW and above units, Mingyang Intelligent ranked for two consecutive years First. Under the trend of large-scale wind turbine capacity, the semi-direct drive technology of Mingyang Intelligent Deep Plowing has become a hot technical route due to its advantages of small size, light weight, and high power generation efficiency.
On October 19, Mingyang Intelligent released the world's largest independently developed floating unit-MySE11-16MW series model, and released the world's largest single-unit capacity unit-MySE7.X MW wind turbine. It is reported that the MySE7.X unit can provide electricity for about 646 households and about 2500 people for one month at a full day. Taking the 200MW northern wind farm as an example, compared with the mainstream 4.0MW model in the market, the number of machines can be reduced by 21, the static investment cost can be reduced by 34%, and the electricity cost per kilowatt-hour can be reduced by 24%.
At the 2021 Wind Energy Exhibition, CRRC released the 5.XMWD175, 6.XMWD185 and 7.XMWD195 units, CRRC wind power complete machine "Jixing" platform series products, and 7.XMW onshore high-power wind turbines. Platform and the innovative concept and key technology of "one machine, one storage". Among them, the 7.X onshore wind turbine platform adopts a horizontal axis, three blades, upwind design, two-point support structure, variable-speed pitch adjustment, and the overall design plan of double-fed power generation and grid connection, which is suitable for an average annual wind speed of 6.5m/s ~9.5m/s in the high wind speed area.
On October 17, Envision Energy released the rational parity map of China's offshore wind power, and its Model Y platform launched the first affordable units EN-200/7.0MW and EN-190/8.0MW for the Chinese market. Wang Xiaoyu, Vice President and CTO of Envision Energy, said that Model Y is Envision's basic platform for the rational cost reduction of China's offshore wind power. The two first units can help achieve parity for offshore wind power in 2022 and 2023.
On the afternoon of October 18, Electric Wind Power released the "POSEIDON" Poseidon platform EW8.0-208 unit and the "Petrel" Haiyan platform EW11.0-208 unit. Among them, the Poseidon platform EW8.0-208 unit adopts highly integrated semi-direct drive chain technology, applies the 100-meter-class carbon fiber large blade S102, is equipped with intelligent "black technology" Sensor Roller technology, and uses the industry-leading gearbox supplier NGC The new compact medium-speed permanent magnet drive chain technology jointly developed by Teeth has been designed in-depth with key component suppliers such as SKF. Haiyan platform EW11.0-208 is the flagship offshore wind power product built by Electric Wind Power, and it is also the largest direct-drive offshore wind turbine unit in Asia with independent intellectual property rights that has been offline.
In addition, during the 2021 wind energy exhibition, Sany Heavy Energy released the 6.X MW wind turbine in the Innovation Theater; Yunda Wind Power grandly launched the large impeller in the low wind area, the large capacity in the medium and high wind area, and the high wind area + typhoon area anti-typhoon type" “Haifeng” series of platform-based units; Dongfang Wind Power released 13 MW offshore wind turbines; National Energy Group United Power Technology Co., Ltd. released two new models, UP6500-184 and UP7000-195; Harbin Electric Wind Energy launched a new pilot series 4H platform Speed permanent magnet wind turbine; Huarui Wind Power released the SL4.X platform unit and SL6.X platform unit.
Under the booming demand, the trend of large-scale wind turbines is expected to reshape the industry structure. Currently, large-scale wind power projects in the Three North and Southwest regions are dominated by 4-5MW units. According to the technical reserves of wind turbine companies, upgrading to 6-7MW models is highly visible, and commercial and large-scale applications are expected. "In the next stage, the maximum single-machine capacity of the onshore wind turbine can reach 10 MW, the impeller diameter will reach 200 meters, and the hub height will reach 200 meters." He Xiaobing, chief engineer of Mingyang Intelligent, predicted.
Participate in the construction of a new power system
The core feature of the new power system is that new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics occupy a dominant position. With the introduction of China's carbon peak and carbon neutral goals, the proportion of new energy in primary energy consumption has continued to increase, showing a trend of "leading the wind and coordinating multiple sources".Where is the "new" of the new power system? In this regard, Liu Zi, member of the Party Committee and deputy general manager of China Three Gorges New Energy (Group) Co., Ltd., said that the new power system first has a new structure in the power supply. Under the new power system, coal-fired power is the dominant power installed capacity, and it will be changed into a wind-solar synergy power supply pattern. The second is that the load should have new characteristics. The original load may be more of a rigid consumer load. In the future, it will shift to a combination of flexible consumption and production. The third is that the power grid has become a new form. The original power grid is more of a one-way step-by-step power supply mode, while the new power system should be a large-scale AC-DC hybrid power grid, micro-grid and local DC power grids, and the transformation of energy interconnection with adjustable loads.
How to coordinate the development of traditional energy and new energy? Wu Jinhua, Chief Coordinating Officer of the Thermal Power and Electric Power Coordination Industry and Director of the Industrial Coordination and Service Center of SPIC, said frankly: “The large-scale development of wind power and photovoltaics must consider hydropower, pumped storage or chemical energy storage, and follow-up. The peak shaving capabilities of thermal power are matched. Even in the event of extreme weather, hydropower, pumped storage and thermal power can boost wind power. This is a new type of power system to ensure the safe and stable operation of the power grid."
He believes that the biggest feature of new energy is randomness, uncontrollable, uncontrollable is natural, but it may become controllable through prediction. Coal power and hydropower are relatively controllable, and the "disobedient" power source and the "obedient" power source are combined through digital big data applications. If the two ends are combined, the stability of the power grid is still relatively good.
According to Wang Yongliang, member of the Standing Committee of the Party Committee and Deputy General Manager of Beijing Energy Group Co., Ltd., a new power system with new energy as the main body has five characteristics: safer, more reliable, greener, more coordinated, and more friendly.
Wang Yongliang believes that in the future new power system, wind power will inevitably face competition with coal power. Wind power is a near-zero-carbon energy source and certainly has advantages from the perspective of carbon emissions. However, wind power is stochastic, and it is less stable from the standpoint of stability. Wind power occupies more land, unlike coal power which only requires one site. New energy, represented by wind power and photovoltaics, is currently optimistic. When it's good, it's easy to be extremely "Left", and when it's bad, it's easy to "Right". "Wind power does not necessarily have to pursue parity. The way out for wind power is to participate in market transactions and move from the cradle to the sea as soon as possible." Wang Yongliang said frankly.
Zhang Yunzhou, Chairman (Dean) of State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd. also believes that “an efficient market mechanism is an important indicator of the success of the new power system. A sound and complete market mechanism should be established to give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation. ."
Many experts and business representatives are full of expectations for the development of wind power. Zhang Xiaochao, deputy director of the New Energy Business Department of China Huaneng Group Co., Ltd., predicts that new energy wind power will be the main energy source in the future. "Excluding all the curtailment factors, judging from the current overall technological progress, it should be no problem for the number of wind power utilization hours to reach 2300 or more than 2400. Offshore wind power reaching close to 2700 or more than 2800, it is also possible from the perspective of technological progress. The new power system in China must be complementary to various energy sources such as wind power, photovoltaics, and hydropower." Zhang Xiaochao said.
Capital intervention to guide resource allocation
With the rapid growth of China's wind power scale, government subsidies have been unable to support the development of the entire industry, and more extensive capital capital intervention has become necessary.Qin Haiyan, secretary general of the Wind Energy Professional Committee of the Chinese Renewable Energy Society and director of the Beijing Jianheng Certification Center, said that the positioning of wind power has changed from supplementary energy to main energy, and the only way to face parity and long-term development is to rely on the industry itself. Efforts, continuous technological progress, and the pursuit of innovation.
"Funding is an important part of the wind power industry. There are still many practical difficulties in China's wind power financing. The development of wind power in the future will be diversified. The development of community wind power and small projects will pay more attention to the quality of the projects. This requires financial institutions to go deeper into the industry. , And cooperate more closely with the roles in the industry." Qin Haiyan said.
Fang Chunhui, director of structured financing of China Securities Construction Investment Securities, introduced that from the perspective of traditional capital market financing, it mainly includes two major types of equity and debt. For the wind power industry, including large types of renewable energy industries, IPO is very important. A common channel for equity financing. Bank loans may be another very familiar channel, as well as financing leases and other methods.
Gong Junsong, deputy general manager of Beijing Green Exchange, believes that carbon finance is a very important part of green finance. In addition to product innovation, it is more important to provide a channel for realizing environmental value, which can be combined with financial resources. Better to guide the resource allocation of the wind power industry.
"Whether it is carbon finance or carbon market, it should provide the wind power industry with an environmental value, a channel for the realization of additional environmental value or a new mechanism. The subsidy is gone, and there may be more Realize the realization of environmental value through a market-oriented approach." Gong Junsong said.
How to measure investment targets, and where is the future development direction of innovative financial products? In this regard, Zhu Ying, a senior manager of Ernst & Young Huaming Certified Public Accountants, analyzed that the overall efficiency of the wind power industry for one year can be used as the direction of indicator setting. If it is a comprehensive power generation group, the range of sustainable development performance indicators can also be selected. More broadly, such as the proportion of renewable energy, the amount of electricity actually generated, and even the subsequent emission reduction results such as CCER, can all be used as the future development direction of some innovative financial products.
On October 18, Huaneng Tiancheng Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. and Jianheng Certification Center jointly released the "White Paper on China's Wind Power Project Investment and Financing Prosperity Index (2021)" at the Innovation Theater of Beijing International Wind Energy Conference (CWP). This is China’s first wind power project investment and financing guidance white paper jointly prepared by financial institutions and third parties for wind power, based on China’s wind power industry market development trends and prospects, wind power asset investment and financing public opinion analysis, investment and financing policies and measures, and diversified wind power asset investment and financing The implementation path is the core content, which comprehensively interprets China's wind power investment and financing development market, or provides substantive guidance for all parties in the industry to participate in wind power development.