No subsidy era
Looking back on the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the domestic renewable energy industry driven by the subsidy policy has developed vigorously, the installed capacity has been further expanded, the industrial chain has been continuously improved, and the cost of power generation has dropped significantly.
According to the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" for renewable energy development, "By 2020, the electricity price of wind power projects can compete with the local coal-fired power generation platform, and the electricity price of photovoltaic projects can be comparable to the electricity price of grid sales." In some regions with better resource conditions, this goal has been basically achieved. With the further reduction of non-technical costs, the cost of wind power and photovoltaic power generation still has room to fall.
But parity on the Internet is the beginning, not the end, of a new phase. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, wind power and photovoltaic power generation management mechanisms will change. Wang Sicheng, a former researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the seminar that the national energy authority will no longer publish the scale of wind power and photovoltaic construction during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. Determine the scale of construction.
According to the previous scale management mechanism of wind power and photovoltaic power generation construction, the national energy authority has issued annual construction scales of wind power and photovoltaic power generation to provinces (autonomous regions and cities) according to the delivery conditions and consumption capacity. Only projects that are included in the national construction scale indicators can receive state subsidies. The main purpose of scale management is to ease the pressure on subsidy gaps.
According to Shi Yanli, a researcher at the Renewable Energy Center of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, to achieve the target of 20% of non-fossil energy in primary energy by 2030, the newly installed wind power during the 14th Five-Year Plan period must reach 100-150 million. Kilowatts, the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation should reach the scale of 200-300 million kilowatts, and an average of 40-60GW of new photovoltaic power generation installed capacity per year.
After parity on-grid, whether wind power and photovoltaic power can be profitable is also the most concerned issue in the industry. Wang Sicheng believes that after eliminating non-technical costs and relaxing policy restrictions, through technological innovation, photovoltaic power prices in the three resource areas in 2021 can be reduced to 0.25 yuan / kWh, 0.30 yuan / kWh, and 0.35 yuan / kWh, respectively. "If the PV is guaranteed to be fully released first, the full-grid project will be profitable without subsidies."